Omdia released its latest research today, indicating that the US smartphone market will decline by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with shipments falling to 33.4 million units.
Tech Free Press learned from the report that this comparison is based on the high base of the first quarter of 2025 —when manufacturers and operators stocked up in advance before potential US tariff measures were implemented. Besides this comparative effect…In addition, US smartphone shipments were also hampered by factors such as a more conservative environment for carrier upgrade plans, rising memory and storage costs, and delayed releases leading to lower-than-expected sales of key high-end models. However, expectations of price increases also drove some low-end models to stock up in channels ahead of the second quarter of 2026.
Regarding specific manufacturers:
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Despite a 3% year-over-year decline in shipments, Apple will maintain its leading position in the first quarter of 2026. Samsung Galaxy S26, the delayed release of the iPhone 17 limited direct competition from high-end Android phones, which benefited Apple. The iPhone 17 series accounted for 70% of Apple’s shipments, while aggressive pre-order promotions for the iPhone 15 continued to drive demand in the lower-priced market.
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Samsung ranked second in Q1 2026, with shipments declining 5% year-over-year due to the delayed release of the Galaxy S26. Despite the delayed launch, the S26 series showed strong initial sales momentum, with pre-orders increasing by nearly 25% compared to the S25 series. In Q1, Samsung mainly relied on demand for its A-series pre-paid models to drive sales, with the Galaxy A17 being a prime example.Their performance was the most outstanding.
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Motorola was the only major manufacturer to achieve growth in the first quarter of 2026, with shipments increasing by 18% year-over-year. This growth was primarily driven by the fully updated Moto G series, which accounted for over 70% of Motorola’s quarterly shipments. Meanwhile, Motorola’s planned price increase in April also prompted carriers and prepaid channels to stock up in advance.
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Google‘s shipments in the first quarter of 2026 declined by 7% year-over-year, as the Pixel 10 series failed to replicate the strong momentum of the Pixel 9 series from a year earlier. Pixel 10aThe early release partially offset this decline, while aggressive carrier promotions remain central to Google’s strategy of expanding Pixel demand beyond its core premium user base.
The report notes that these pressures are expected to persist until the end of 2026, with Omdia predicting a 4% year-over-year decline in US smartphone shipments for the full year . Beyond short-term price and shipment pressures, native AI devices are becoming a long-term strategic focus. While such devices are unlikely to immediately drive a massive smartphone replacement cycle, the progress of OpenAI and reported interest from Amazon suggest that AI-driven interfaces may gradually reshape consumers’ perception of the value of upgrading smartphones.
